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Lawmaker, Earthquake Scientists Call for Statewide Early-Warning System

The initial cost estimate of $80 million would help pay for ground sensors and relays that could provide text and mobile alerts in the event of a quake on the San Andreas Fault near Claremont and La Verne.

A lawmaker in Los Angeles County announced proposed legislation Monday to create an earthquake-warning system that could give California residents up to 60 seconds advance notice when a temblor strikes.

The initial cost estimate of $80 million would help pay for ground sensors and relays that could provide text and mobile alerts in the event of a quake on the San Andreas Fault near Claremont and La Verne, according to Caltech scientists and state Sen. Alex Padilla, who represents the San Fernando Valley.

"California is going to have an earthquake early warning system," Padilla, D-Van Nuys, said at a news conference at Caltech in Pasadena. "The question is whether we have one before or after the next big quake."

Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey, Romania, Italy and China either have or are working on earthquake early warning systems.

Building on the existing California Integrated Seismic Network, seismologists hope for a system that will process data from sensors throughout the state, Padilla's staff said in a statement.

"The system would effectively detect the strength and the progression of earthquakes, alert the public within seconds and provide up to 60 seconds advanced warning before potentially damaging ground shaking is felt," Padilla's staff said.

A fully-developed early warning system could provide Californians critical seconds to take cover, assist loved ones, pull to the side of the road, or exit a building, Padilla said. It could also allow time to stop a train or power down other critical infrastructure, Padilla said.

An earthquake warning would not only alert the public, it would also speed responses of police and fire personnel by quickly identifying areas hardest hit by the quake, Padilla said.

"We firmly believe Earthquake Early Warning would save lives and help California in many ways if it is rolled out as a fully operational system," said Dr. Michael Gurnis, professor of geophysics and director of Caltech's Seismological Laboratory.

About 90 percent of the world's earthquakes and more than 80 percent of the world's strongest quakes occur along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which includes the Pacific and North American tectonic plates, and the active San Andreas Fault zone, Padilla said.

Three weeks ago, the California Institute of Technology and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology published a study concluding for the first time that a statewide California earthquake involving both the Los Angeles and San Francisco metropolitan areas may be possible, Padilla said.

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast released in 2008 predicted a 99.7 percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in California in the next 30 years and a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7.0.

To read the study on a statewide earthquake go to: http://www.caltech.edu/content/faulty-behavior.

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